Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 06/2234Z from Region 2365 (S13E64). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 436 km/s at 07/0324Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1930Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jun), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (09 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 137
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 016/020-020/028-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
