Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 21/0502Z from Region 2286 beyond the west limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at 20/2320Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/1927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2237Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Feb), unsettled levels on day two (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 116
Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 21 Feb 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 012/015-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
