Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/1653Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 406 km/s at 26/0746Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 26/0802Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 26/0802Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (29 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 147
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 155/160/160
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 012/015-008/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
