Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 21/1142Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 552 km/s at 21/1834Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 21/0658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 21/1551Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 124
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 125/130/135
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
