Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 397 km/s at 17/0248Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/0410Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 122
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 012/015-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
