Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 08/0434Z from Region 2253 (S06W57). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 583 km/s at 08/0040Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 08/0048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/1344Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 157
Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 160/165/165
90 Day Mean 08 Jan 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 023/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 013/015-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
