Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 05/1747Z from Region 2253 (S07W18). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 589 km/s at 05/1911Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 05/0711Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 04/2152Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 142
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 150/155/160
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 018/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 011/015-007/008-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
