Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 10/0924Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 571 km/s at 10/0028Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Dec), quiet levels on day two (12 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 150
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 155/165/170
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/008-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
