Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/0934Z from Region 2222 (S20W22). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 537 km/s at 03/1832Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/1701Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (06 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 154
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
