Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/0137Z from Region 2216 (S14E13). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 460 km/s at 24/0529Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1147Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 887 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 170
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 155/145/145
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
