Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
13/0607Z from Region 2209 (S15E62). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (14 Nov) and likely
to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three
(15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 590 km/s at
13/0018Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/2107Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0814Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov)
and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15
Nov, 16 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 60/70/70
Class X 20/30/30
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 154
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 165/180/180
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/008-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/40
