Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to

09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24

hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at

09/1532Z from Region 2205 (N15E05). There are currently 4 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11

Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

476 km/s at 09/1811Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/2100Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1710Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to minor

storm levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day

three (12 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on

days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov

Class M    70/70/70

Class X    30/30/30

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           09 Nov 132

Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 135/145/150

90 Day Mean        09 Nov 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  008/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  025/034-014/018-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/35/25

Minor Storm           35/30/05

Major-severe storm    25/15/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                05/05/15

Minor Storm           20/20/30

Major-severe storm    75/70/30