Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to

08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at

08/1755Z from Region 2205 (N15E18). There are currently 5 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10

Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

533 km/s at 08/0704Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/2114Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2106Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Nov), quiet to major

storm levels on day two (10 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day

three (11 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on

days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

Class M    70/70/70

Class X    30/30/30

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           08 Nov 132

Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 135/135/145

90 Day Mean        08 Nov 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  010/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  008/008-025/034-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/30/35

Minor Storm           05/35/30

Major-severe storm    01/25/15

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/05/05

Minor Storm           30/20/20

Major-severe storm    30/75/70