Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to

24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24

hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at

24/0748Z from Region 2192 (S12W21). There are currently 7 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate

with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26

Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

512 km/s at 24/0635Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0059Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1435Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6243 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct)

and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Oct). Protons have a chance

of crossing threshold 25-27 Oct.

III.  Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct

Class M    85/85/85

Class X    45/45/45

Proton     35/40/45

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           24 Oct 218

Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 220/220/220

90 Day Mean        24 Oct 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  010/013

Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  009/010-007/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/15/30

Minor Storm           05/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/30

Major-severe storm    25/25/40