Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 October 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/2255Z from Region 2192 (S13E30). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
697 km/s at 21/1308Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0126Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/2116Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2238 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23 Oct) and
unsettled levels on day three (24 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 199
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 205/210/210
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 017/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 013/015-014/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/30
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/35
Major-severe storm 40/40/40
