Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 October 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
20/1637Z from Region 2192 (S13E30). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 606 km/s at 20/1945Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1616Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/1641Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 296
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (23 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 185
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 195/200/205
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 015/018-013/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/40/40
