Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1707Z from Region 2185 (S14E43). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
453 km/s at 05/2345Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/0945Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0059Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 323 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09
Oct).

III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 130
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20