Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
02/1901Z from Region 2173 (S13W85). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (05 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 415 km/s at
02/1646Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0326Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1110 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Oct, 05
Oct) and quiet levels on day two (04 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 45/35/20
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 149
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 007/008-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/25