Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
23/2316Z from Region 2172 (S11E36). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep,
27 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 474 km/s at 24/2014Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1803Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/1827Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 333
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 145
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 150/155/160
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 015/018-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/50/40