Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
08/0011Z from Region 2157 (S14E17). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10
Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 493 km/s at
08/0540Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2126Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0613Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 07/2300Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Sep, 10 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Sep). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 164
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 160/162/162
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20