Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
05/0654Z from Region 2157 (S14E58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 445 km/s at
05/0803Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/0129Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1442Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 05/1900Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 4242 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Sep). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (06
Sep), are likely to cross threshold on day two (07 Sep) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (08 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 70/60/50
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 144
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 017/022-013/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 20/15/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20