Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
31/1211Z from Region 2149 (N09W63). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
473 km/s at 31/2028Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1245Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1021Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1342 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 125
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 009/012-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10