Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/0456Z from Region 2149 (N09W50). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
481 km/s at 30/0146Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/0321Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/2201Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1510 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (31 Aug, 01 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 123
Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 30 Aug 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 020/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 011/014-009/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10