Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/1948Z from Region 2146 (N09E62). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
325 km/s at 17/1204Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/0749Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1148Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 115
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 005/005-009/012-013/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/35/35
Minor Storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/30/30