Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
30/1617Z from Region 2127 (S09E36). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug,
02 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
358 km/s at 30/0148Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0333Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0244Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 Jul, 01 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (02 Aug) with a chance for active
conditions.

III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 152
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 155/160/160
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/30