Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/1633Z from Region 2130 (S07E71). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul,
01 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
28/2113Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01
Aug).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 142
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15