Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
25/0702Z from Region 2121 (N08E30). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (26 Jul, 27 Jul)
and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (28 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
387 km/s at 25/1501Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/1259Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0612Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (27 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M 01/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 107
Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 110/115/120
90 Day Mean 25 Jul 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 007/008-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/20