Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at
17/2132Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (21 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jul 089
Predicted 19 Jul-21 Jul 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 18 Jul 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jul 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul-21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20