Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul) should regions develop.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 449 km/s at
17/0501Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 089
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10