Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
10/0253Z from Region 2106 (N16W75). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
420 km/s at 10/1858Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/0036Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/0035Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jul, 12 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (13 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 177
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 175/160/150
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 006/005-006/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/15/30
Major-severe storm 10/15/25