Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/0554Z from Region 2108 (S08E16). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 325 km/s at
05/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/1802Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1802Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 193
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 195/190/185
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05