Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
29/1152Z from Region 2104 (S10E64). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul,
02 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
394 km/s at 29/0313Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/2030Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0011Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Jun, 01 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (02 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 126
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 130/130/140
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20