Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
20/1120Z from Region 2093 (S09E08). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (21 Jun) and likely to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
512 km/s at 20/2001Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/1928Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/1349Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 487 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Jun), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (22 Jun) with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection from 19
June, and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 45/35/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 102
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 006/005-013/018-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/40/40
Minor Storm 01/25/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/35/35