Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
11/0906Z from Region 2087 (S18E56). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13
Jun, 14 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
643 km/s at 11/1108Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/2157Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0050Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13
Jun, 14 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 168
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 175/170/165
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 007/008-012/018-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor Storm 05/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 20/50/25