Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 May,
01 Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
366 km/s at 30/1822Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/1843Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1713Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (01 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF red

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 102
Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 30 May 142

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 009/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 40/20/05