Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
26/0000Z from Region 2065 (S19W87). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 May,
28 May, 29 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 418 km/s at
26/0018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 157 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 May, 28 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (29 May).

III. Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M 20/20/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 108
Predicted 27 May-29 May 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 26 May 145

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May NA/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/20