Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
25/1753Z from Region 2065 (S19W73). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 May,
27 May, 28 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 473 km/s at
25/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 204 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 May, 28 May).

III. Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M 20/20/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 113
Predicted 26 May-28 May 112/112/110
90 Day Mean 25 May 145

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May NA/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05