Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1835Z from Region 2065 (S18W59). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 May,
26 May, 27 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 501 km/s at 24/0533Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2107Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/2107Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (25 May, 27 May) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (26 May).

III. Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 118
Predicted 25 May-27 May 118/118/115
90 Day Mean 24 May 146

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 017/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 006/005-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 15/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/20/05