Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/0458Z from Region 2065 (S18W46). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 May,
25 May, 26 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
550 km/s at 23/0757Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 22/2226Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 23/0017Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (25 May, 26 May).

III. Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 116
Predicted 24 May-26 May 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 23 May 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/05/15
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/15/30
Major-severe storm 45/05/20