Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1050Z from Region 2026 (S11W04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr,
08 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
548 km/s at 05/1346Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/2036Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/1102Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 142
Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 05 Apr 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05