Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/1857Z from Region 1995 (S16W76). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar,
10 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at ACE reached 508 km/s at 06/2248Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached 121 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 148
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 145/140/135
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 009/012-007/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/25/25