Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
525 km/s at 22/2108Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/0042Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0258Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26
Jan).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 136
Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 23 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05