Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/1124Z from Region 1917 (S15W24). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec,
17 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
615 km/s at 14/2037Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/0547Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/0129Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 319 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 164
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 013/015-005/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/05/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 40/05/05