Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
11/2045Z from Region 1916 (S12W78). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec,
14 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
10/2327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 126 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (13 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14
Dec).

III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 171
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 168/165/160
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 005/005-011/012-017/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/45/45
Minor Storm 01/30/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/10
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/70/65