Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1130Z from Region 1917 (S16E43). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec,
12 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 611 km/s at
08/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2109Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1443Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (12 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 168
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 170/175/172
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 009/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 35/10/05