Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/0729Z from Region 1909 (S17W61). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec,
10 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at
07/0755Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2100Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 157
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 007/010-008/010-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/35