Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
04/0056Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at
04/0539Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/0239Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/0349Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 138
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 140/145/140
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 006/005-007/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 05/20/35