Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/1444Z from Region 1913 (S14W58). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec,
05 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 489 km/s at
02/0334Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/0438Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/0808Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05
Dec).

III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 134
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 135/135/140
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05