Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/1121Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec,
03 Dec, 04 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
585 km/s at 01/0255Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0040Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 30/2116Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (04 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 131
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 009/015-008/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/30/05