Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0129Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov,
28 Nov, 29 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at
26/1429Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 116
Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 26 Nov 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10